Saturday night: Michael Jackson’s “This Is It” –  is it a hit or a flop?

Let’s put it this way. As a documentary, it’s on track to be the third-largest-grossing doc in history. It will finish this weekend in the $30 million-plus category. That puts it behind Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 911″ and “Earth.” At No. 3, it will be ahead of Moore’s other films, as well as Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Madonna’s “Truth or Dare.”

Forget about highest-grossing weekends, or Wednesdays in October. In the end, only the total number will matter.

As a music concert film, “This Is It” slides into second place, all time, right behind “Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour.” No. 3 would be a film about the Jonas Brothers, which made just less than $20 million total.

I’d say “This Is It” is a hit, based on those numbers. It could finish this weekend with between $30 million and $32 million domestically. Internationally, the number could turn out to be equal.

I will say that one of Sony’s biggest mistakes was not showing the film to the press in advance. The only word-of-mouth they built was on supposition. Instead of trusting that they had something good, the studio acted out of fear. The result was that this reviewer, like so many, had to write the review while watching the film. The reviews came out as the film arrived, without any quotes or anything to prime the part of the public that was skeptical or didn’t care.

Meantime, Sony Music predicts that the “This Is It” CD sold around 300,000 copies in its first week. The numbers come in on Monday. Not bad considering it only has two new tracks on it and consists otherwise of greatest hits that have already been sold and resold twice in the last four months.

The “This Is It” DVD will hit stores Jan. 20, just in case anyone’s interested in the actual date instead of guessing.

Friday night: Rock and Roll Hall of Fame show at Madison Square Garden ended at 11:30 p.m., two hours earlier than it did the previous night. Mick Jagger substituted for Eric Clapton’s missing star power. Annie Lennox and Lenny Kravitz joined Aretha Franklin onstage. Other acts included U2 and Metallica, Patti Smith, Lou Reed and Ray Davies of the Kinks. Bruce Springsteen showed up again to play with Ozzy Osbourne.

Mick sang with Bono. Tom Hanks made a speech. David Geffen — who’s getting inducted into the Rock Hall next spring whether people like it or not because Jann Wenner says so — made an appearance. Wenner’s making everyone sign some kind of commemorative book. “It’s very important to him,” says a source. Whatever. Celebs: Harvey Weinstein, Lorraine Bracco, Robbie Robertson, Michael J. Fox again, Vivi Nevo, Jimmy Buffett’s wife, Daniel Craig, who came over after “A Steady Rain” finished. Most of the celebs were packed into Jann Wenner’s private box, along with his wife, Jane Wenner, and his lover, Matt Nye…It’s a modern world: Wenner has three kids with each of them…(Now that’s a reality series!)…

On Thursday night, Blondie played a set in Brooklyn for the rock photo exhibit at the Brooklyn Museum. Hey — isn’t this what the Rock Hall is supposed to be about?…

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Is Bruce Springsteen a man or a machine? Is he Superman? These are the questions that ran through my mind last night as Springsteen and his E Street Band literally picked up the six-hour Rock and Roll Hall of Fame anniversary show at Madison Square Garden and breathed life into it.

The show, which started at 7:30, lived on a weird mix of sedation, old fights, and punctuations of soul for its first four hours. It was divided into sections after Jerry Lee Lewis emerged to play  “Whole Lotta Shakin’ Goin’ On.” Crosby, Stills & Nash commanded a deadly hour with Bonnie Raitt — the only featured female of the night, plus James Taylor and Jackson Browne. It wasn’t the artists’ fault but it was too much of the same thing, and — coupled with the 98% all white audience — they lent a creepy start to the history of rock and roll. I kept expecting Pat Boone to come out and join them in an acapella “Tutti Frutti.”

Instead, it was time for “Family Feud” with Simon & Garfunkel. After Paul Simon (who is really a devastatingly good songwriter, if not the best) delivered a couple of his solo hits, he brought out Little Anthony and the Imperials. They were the first black artists on stage after two hours. For some reason, Anthony chose “Two Kinds of People,” a little obscure, instead of “Hurts So Bad.” Still, the audience loved them as much as they adored Dion DiMucci on “The Wanderer.” Simon’s guests actually related to the roots of rock and roll, and were authentic.

Adding Art Garfunkel was good for gossip and harmony — the vocal kind only. How these two make such beautiful music and are so awful to each other is beyond me. “The Sound of Silence” was exquisite. “Mrs. Robinson” was playfully woven into Buddy Holly’s “Not Fade Away.” “The Boxer” was sublime and moving. But then came “Bridge Over Troubled Water.” Garfunkel sang the first verse. But Simon cut him off, it seemed, to croak the second verse. This was a mistake. Garfunkel looked pissed, and Simon sounded like Burt Bacharach on a bad day. When Garfunkel took over to begin, “Sail on Silver Girl,” Simon just huffed away. He should have just let Garfunkel sing the song. Anyway, Garfunkel brought it to an emotional and satisfying close.

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It’s all how you spin it, right?

Michael Jackson’s “This Is It” made $20 million worldwide opening on a Wednesday in October on the first night of the World Series. This is considered a tremendous success, not a disappointment. How it got labeled the latter is beyond me.

If “This Is It” makes $70 million domestically through Sunday night, believe me, Sony and AEG and Michael Jackson’s estate will be very happy. There’s no reason to think it won’t. The film has an across-the-board Cinemascope rating of A. Most of the reviews, except for one crazy one, are positive. THR’s Kirk Honeycutt lavished praise on it, and he’s tough, kids. If he likes it, you know it’s good.

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What if there were ten slots open for Best Picture and not enough entries to fill them? It’s a distinct possibilty.

From the poor reviews to the low boxoffice, it does seem, sadly, that Mira Nair’s “Amelia” is a scratch from Oscar consideration. With the movie may also go Hilary Swank’s chances at a third statue. I love Mira Nair’s movies. This is a disappointment. But she — and Swank — will be back.

At the same time, early word on “The Lovely Bones” from Peter Jackson is that it doesn’t quite work as a thriller. A possible Best Picture player, “Bones” may have an audience thanks to its large built-in following. But awards may be more elusive.

So far the only movies everyone can agree on as Best Picture candidates are Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air” and Lee Daniels’s “Precious.” Beyond that, it’s all in the realm of subjectivity.

And now there’s a new player since the London Film Festival made a special citation for John Hillcoat’s “The Road“  for its “breathtaking vision, extraordinary performances and profound political statement.” “The Road” is the sleeper film of 2009, with an Oscar level performance, as usual, from Viggo Mortensen.

Here are some actual possibilities: “An Education,” with Carey Mulligan (lead) and Peter Sarsgaard (supporting); Tom Ford’s breathtaking “A Single Man” with Colin Firth (lead) and Julianne Moore (supporting); “A Serious Man” from the Coen brothers; Helen Mirren (lead) in “The Last Station“; Christoph Waltz (supporting) and “Inglourious Basterds“; and maybe, quite possibly, “Where the Wild Things Are.”

Still to be seen, but highly anticipated: Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus” with Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela; and Rob Marshall’s “Nine,” with Daniel Day-Lewis and a bevy of beauties including Penelope Cruz and Marion Cotillard.

There are some Oscar certainties, like the annual Woody Allen Best Supporting Actress. This year it’s Patricia Clarkson as the zany Southern mother in “Whatever Works.” Clarkson, long overdue, is a show stopper. Meryl Streep and Stanley Tucci are still glowing from “Julie & Julia.”

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Ben Stiller is going to bowling for dollars Thursday night.

Stiller and wife Christine Taylor are co-hosting the annual Project ALS event at Lucky Strike lanes on the west side of Manhattan.

Here are just some of the people will be cooling their palms over the little fans: Ben’s parents, Jerry Stiller and Anne Meara, my favorite “Mad” man, John Slattery, as well as  Richard Kind, Janeane Garofalo, Rob Morrow, Caroline Rhea, Jesse Martin, Tom Cavanagh, Vincent Spano, Bill Hader, John Franco, Gina Gershon, Sarah Silverman, and John Stamos.

Even more celebs are expected. Pat Harrington, who runs Project ALS, says the group has met its goal for the season, but still has tickets for anyone interested.

Let me tell you: Jenifer Estess was an amazing person whom I knew quite well many years ago. She was full of love and life. She invented the Naked Angels theater group with pals Fisher Stevens, Rob Morrow, and Marisa Tomei. She brought in her best college bud, John Kennedy Jr., And then she was diagnosed with ALS, aka Lou Gehrig’s Disease. She and her sisters started Project ALS, and she fought back.

Jenifer is gone now, but Project ALS lives on and thrives. It sounds like a pretty fun night, too. For tickets and info, call Pat at 212-480-6940 or email her at hhsprnyc@aol.com.

In my favorite “Seinfeld” episode, titled “The Yadda Yadda” — an episode by the way that includes the famous “Yada Yada” — Jerry accuses dentist Dr. Whatley of converting to Judaism so he can tell his patients Jewish jokes. That’s why the same episode is alternately known as “The Anti-Dentite.”

And so, too, Ashton Kutcher — who is not Jewish and has not converted — may be turning his version of Jewish, for the jokes. Tonight, in exchange for showing up at GQ Magazine’s Gentleman’s Ball, Kutcher is making sure his “rabbi” is getting honored, too. Yehuda Berg, son of the man who invented Los Angeles’s money making Kabbalah Center, is also receiving an award. Oy!

Berg is one of two sons of Philip Berg, nee Feivel Gruberger, and his second wife, Karen. (The other son, Michael, is behind Madonna’s Raising Malawi organization.) According to published reports, Philip Berg — that is, former insurance salesman Feivel Gruberger — was married to the niece of the famous Kabbalist Rabbi Brandwein. Berg left her and their eight children, married Karen and started the Kabbalah Center. He claimed to be the heir to the Kabbalah tradition, although Brandwein’s relatives denounced him. Now, Yehuda Berg has said in interviews that Kabbalah isn’t for Jews, but for everyone.

And those “everyones” have to pay and pay  and pay for a sense of wisdom and “inner peace.” They wear the expensive red string bracelets, and buy copies of the “Zohar” — the Kabbalah books of gibberish combining astrology and fortune cookie sayings — for hundreds of dollars more.

According to its 2008 tax filing, the Kabbalah Center has net assets of $25 million. That doesn’t include all their offshoots, curriculums  (Spirituality for Kids: $11 million in assets), real estate holdings and three corporations. It’s big, big business.

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Dr. Arnold Klein, Michael Jackson’s long time dermatologist, is determined to embarrass him today. Yes, Michael is dead, but his movie, “This Is It,” is opening to rave reviews. What can Dr. Klein do to steal the spotlight?

Well, he sued Michael yesterday for just under $50,000. Klein says Michael racked up that balance with him between March 23rd and June 22, 2009. Procedures were mostly facial things — Restalyne, suntanning, Botox, that sort of thing.

It’s interesting to note that Dr. Klein — for whom Debbie Rowe (they no longer speak) once worked, and who set up the birth of Blanket, Michael’s third child — charged Jackson a grotesque $5,000 for an unscheduled weekend appointment and $7,500 for another.

The purpose of the lawsuit does seem to be to reveal a laundry list of Michael’s treatments. Klein could have filed last summer, or waited until after “This Is It” was released — or even better, wrote off the amount since Jackson kept him in business for years. But greed is greed, and Klein picked yesterday to get maximum exposure. As Chrissie Hynde sings so brilliantly, “You know who your friends are.”

Now that Klein has filed suit, I do hope the Jackson executors file a complaint against him with the California Medical Board. Those fees seem usurious. The board might also look at the drugs Klein was giving Michael including Lantoprost, which is opthalmic — meaning for eye doctors, not dermatologists, to prescribe.

How ironic. Michael Jackson is dead. But in “This Is It,” the filmed chronicle of rehearsals for shows that never happened, he finally gets his greatest wish granted: He’s a movie star (here’s THR’s review from Kirk Honeycutt).

“This Is It” is quite extraordinary. If there was any doubt that Michael was in control of the shows or his decisions, those fears are allayed here. Maybe he was sleeping 15 hours a day. But during these rehearsals, he couldn’t have been more focused or hardworking. It is truly amazing considering the last 16 years of total lunacy to see him so capable.

Director Kenny Ortega was smart in his edits. You see Michael almost from the beginning, dancing up a storm, singing without assistance vibrantly. True, he is very thin. But you also see that it’s a result of working out like crazy. Yes, he could have been five pounds heavier. But I dare anyone who sees this movie to try one of Michael’s moves.

“This Is It” is also notable for its emotional moments. At the end of a rehearsal of the Jackson 5 hit “I’ll Be There,” he calls out all of his brothers for a thank-you, as well as both parents. It’s a three-hanky moment. Some of his family will be embarrassed now about the way they’ve behaved.

One thing’s for sure: AEG spent a lot of money on this show. The production numbers are spectacular and sumptuous. “Smooth Criminal” is one of the standouts. The making of the “Thriller” number in 3D is remarkable.

And just wait ’til you see and hear him sing “I Just Can’t Stop Loving You” and “The Way You Make Me Feel” as Michael sings the blues and teaches the musicians how to play his charts. “It needs more booty,” he tells a keyboard player trying to get the right sexiness.

Will “This Is It,” dedicated to Michael’s kids, be a hit? Let’s put it this way: I already want to see it again. The fans will see it five times. Expect Sony to extend this release. “This Is It” is the “Thriller” of the year.

As Michael himself says, it’s a great adventure.

For another take on the “This Is It” premiere on the West Coast, check out THR’s Risky Business blog. Read the film review by THR chief film critic Kirk Honeycutt here.

THE STARS COME OUT IN NYC

Spike Lee was the first boldfaced name we saw wander into Theater 9 at the Regal E Walk tonight for “This Is It.” He had his kids with him. The rest of the A-list gang followed: Gayle King, Russell Simmons, Sherri Shepherd. Famed director Lasse Hallstrom brought his 14-year-old daughter. “Law & Order: SVU” star Tamara Tunie arrived with buddy Marva Hicks. Bob and Lynne Balaban took corner seats. Clive Davis snuck in with two lady friends at the last minute. Elsewhere in the room, DJ Cassidy – a wild Michael Jackson fan– was already thinking about queueing up for the midnight show. There were rare appearances by Ed and Annie Pressman, Johnny Pigozzi and Ken Sunshine. And these were just the people Peggy Siegal stocked Theatre 9 with — Bryan Bantry had his own gang in No. 8.

It was a far cry from the shallow nuttiness we watched on the screen from Hollywood. Leanza Cornett, once a Miss America, is no Katie Couric, that’s for sure. She looked at a loss as a gaggle of ferociously unimportant people filed by her: Jennifer Love Hewitt and her boyfriend, Jamie Kennedy; American Idols Adam Lambert and David Cook; a bewildered Paula Abdul. Nia Long. Will Smith was smart and didn’t go near her. Also seen on the red carpet: fake Jackson kid Omer Bhatti and his mom, Pia Bhatti, still looking for some spotlight. And then the Jackson brothers Marlon, Tito, and Jackie -- nice guys. They almost got to speak, but then Jermaine –resplendent in a blue magic carpet of a coat that looked like it was made by Persian Bob’s Cut Rate Carpets — horned in and started answering questions. The other brothers barely looked at him. In the background was a guy known only as Raffles, a Joe Jackson lackey with a sketchy history who skipped his usual yellow jacket full of black question marks. The whole thing was summed up in its total lack of importance by Cornett interviewing Mary Hart. All they were missing was Bubbles the Chimp…

Michael Jackson’s recorded music will likely stay with Sony Music.

Contrary to reports today, no one connected with Michael Jackson has any idea of talks to move Jackson’s records to Universal Music Group.

A source close to the action says of Michael’s post-2004 unreleased catalog, “There is much music.”

But how much completed music is another issue. Jackson was arrested in 2003, and endured two years of trial-related misery. It’s unknown if he was writing very much at the time.

Following his acquittal, Jackson spent a year or more abroad, in Bahrain, Ireland, and briefly in France. In Bahrain he was supposed to be recording an album for Prince Abdulla under an agreement that was never fulfilled. Following that he wrote a few songs with will.i.am of the Black Eyed Peas, and another with Pras of the Fugees. A few of those recordings exist for inclusion on a CD. Also, the charity single “What More Can I Give?” featuring Celine Dion and a bunch of stars has never officially been released. Sony’s Tommy Mottola refused to put it out in 2001 after Jackson recorded it.

Moving from Sony would be a problem anyway. Jackson’s estate is still a 50% owner of Sony/ATV Music Publishing. The estate has representatives on the board of directors of that company. For better or worse, Michael Jackson and Sony are a marriage with divorce a minor possibility.

‘This Is It’ on THR.com

Join us Tuesday at 4 p.m. PT for a live stream from the red carpet (courtesy of UStream below) at the “This Is It” premiere. Stick around as THR’s Steven Zeitchik and Matthew Belloni give you the inside scoop on the world-premiere screening from Los Angeles. And look for a instant review to arrive right after the movie!

Live TV : Ustream