Saturday night: Michael Jackson’s “This Is It” – is it a hit or a flop?
Let’s put it this way. As a documentary, it’s on track to be the third-largest-grossing doc in history. It will finish this weekend in the $30 million-plus category. That puts it behind Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 911″ and “Earth.” At No. 3, it will be ahead of Moore’s other films, as well as Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and Madonna’s “Truth or Dare.”
Forget about highest-grossing weekends, or Wednesdays in October. In the end, only the total number will matter.
As a music concert film, “This Is It” slides into second place, all time, right behind “Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour.” No. 3 would be a film about the Jonas Brothers, which made just less than $20 million total.
I’d say “This Is It” is a hit, based on those numbers. It could finish this weekend with between $30 million and $32 million domestically. Internationally, the number could turn out to be equal.
I will say that one of Sony’s biggest mistakes was not showing the film to the press in advance. The only word-of-mouth they built was on supposition. Instead of trusting that they had something good, the studio acted out of fear. The result was that this reviewer, like so many, had to write the review while watching the film. The reviews came out as the film arrived, without any quotes or anything to prime the part of the public that was skeptical or didn’t care.
Meantime, Sony Music predicts that the “This Is It” CD sold around 300,000 copies in its first week. The numbers come in on Monday. Not bad considering it only has two new tracks on it and consists otherwise of greatest hits that have already been sold and resold twice in the last four months.
The “This Is It” DVD will hit stores Jan. 20, just in case anyone’s interested in the actual date instead of guessing.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:25 pm
You need to adjust the figures for inflation. Madonna’s film was out almost 20 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, Truth or Dare grossed about $50 million. And Madonna didn’t have to O.D. to bank that amount.
October 31st, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Paul,
You are a mofo loser. I hope you OD on your own stupidity. Which would be a lot worst.
October 31st, 2009 at 5:25 pm
I think it’s possible that Sony didn’t release any preview copies for fear that someone would steal it and bootleg it.
October 31st, 2009 at 7:39 pm
what a crappy , negative review.
October 31st, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Samantha,
Really? Those are some extreme words to call someone in defense of freaking Michael Jackson. You didn’t know him. Could it be, perhaps, that you’re the loser? I think yes.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Roger on Oct. 31: The “This Is It” DVD will hit stores Jan. 20, just in case anyone’s interested in the actual date instead of guessing.
Roger on Oct 23: Michael Jackson’s “This Is It” opens worldwide in theaters on Wednesday. But you won’t be seeing it on DVD until February….The earliest it would turn up is Feb. 13.
Of course, no correction or mention of the previous bad information–which was presented as fact.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:49 am
Paul, please crawl into a hole and die.
November 1st, 2009 at 2:32 am
Clapping..standing ovation for Sam! Paul is a complete loser babe and is quite ignorant..you’ll see! LOL
November 1st, 2009 at 4:10 am
roger, thanks once again for this nice blog entry. i really wonder why the movie doesn’t perform better than hannah montana, which received horrible reviews. “this is it” got best reviews throughout the media. i do hope that people will realize that variety, l.a. times, wallstreet journal, TIME etc all LOVE this movie and will go to the theatre.
November 1st, 2009 at 4:12 am
I guess I am blocked from her huh … my post is being posted …
November 1st, 2009 at 4:38 am
I always thought that Woodstock was huge! Paul how much was it? And please adjust for inflation.(1969 release)
November 1st, 2009 at 4:59 am
This is a movie made for the fans. Just for once, maybe, money was not the main concern.
November 1st, 2009 at 7:30 am
The problem is, Sony spent 60 mil for the raw footage and more to put this film together – VASTLY more then it cost for the other documentaries/concert films mentioned!! Sony didn’t do this for the fans, they did it to make money – and it may be quite a while, if ever, before they see a profit…
November 1st, 2009 at 8:02 am
Jackson was and always will known be a freak and a child molester who got away with it in moral life, but he’s burning now baby and no one can buy him out of this one …
November 1st, 2009 at 8:06 am
Sony didn’t want press to see it first because they were afraid it would get negative reviews (and it got many). That’s why they also made viewers buy tickets in advance because if people saw the negative reviews, not many might not want to go see it. Hey, the truth speaks for itself. If the movie was so great, why resort to such cloak-and-dagger games? Limited two-week run. *snort* That’s how long they HONESTLY expected it to run.
November 1st, 2009 at 8:19 am
BNS – don’t be so naive. Of course money was the ONLY concern. AEG sold this for $60m, which already covered their losses more than twice over (and that’s not counting their insurance payout). Then they stand to receive the first $135m from this film before Michael’s estate even sees a cent, and then they continue to get 10% after that. So you damn well know they’re gonna promote the hell out of this film until it reaches $135m, then they’ll cool off after they get their pound of flesh. You’ll see.
November 1st, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Cookie- The movie got 90% all positive reviews, I have no clue what your talking about. This writer gave it great reviews as did every respectable critic in the country. It was VERY well received and rightfully so. I’ve seen it twice and the movie is fantastic.
November 1st, 2009 at 3:17 pm
So sad that the freak show didn’t bring in anywhere near what Sony was hoping for.
Too bad Jacko can’t die all over again to get the interest stirred back up a little among his freaky fans. Maybe they’d be more willing to part with money from their welfare checks to watch this glorified home video of a drugged out perv in his sad last days.
November 1st, 2009 at 4:21 pm
to paul
do you have a life. you are a bonafide loser. mj is dead and he is still a threat to you. may ur low self esteem and self worthless ness
November 1st, 2009 at 4:22 pm
to paul
do you have a life. you are a bonafide loser. mj is dead and he is still a threat to you. may ur low self esteem and self worthless ness
kill you cos once you die no one will remember you. you are a terrible for a human being
November 1st, 2009 at 4:57 pm
i think moores films should be classified as science fiction and not a documentary
November 1st, 2009 at 5:11 pm
why would anyone wanna give the press anything? they ll screw up the facts and give us lies anyway.especially about Michael Jackson. Remember just a few months ago he was so sick he could not move and yet he was going a big concert? this movie is the rehearsal footage. remember all the crap we heard about Michael Jackson all these years? who do u think wrote that stuff? it was not any fan or other except the press!
yeah and Paul go suck yr mom’s dick!
November 1st, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Great, a movie about a guy who had a complete meltdown in life and started to touch little boys. He was also a junkie and a human Mr. Potato Head. You can attach multiple noses and eye pieces on him.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:18 am
Jan 20?? are you serious? I have heard it is going to be on december 17th. Well i guess they are trying to get as more as possible from the cinemas before releasing it on DVD
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:30 am
As much as I like MJ much more than Madonna, Paul is correct if you want the comparison to be on an even playing field (all except the comment about the OD)
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:41 am
Paul I have tried hard to ignore your ignorant comments but you starting to get on my nerves.For one thing here at my house, we are not on welfare and we are not freak fans.And yes we did pre order the dvd and yes we will watch it over and over again!!Oh and by the way Mr.Perfect,you can’t tell me there aren’t a few skeletons in your closet.
November 2nd, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Roger, you’re a terrible writer. What do you mean critics had to write their reviews while seeing the film? You mean they brought laptops into the theatre and typed away and sent it to their blogsites right after the movie finished?!
Funny how here, you say “This Is It” will be in 2nd place for highest-grossing doc, yet in your later post today, you claim it’s in 1st place! Read your own posts, man!
Speaking of which, in another earlier post, you said the DVD couldn’t come out until February. Now you’re saying it’s coming out January. Uh, care to explain how/why you were wrong once again?!
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:41 am
I would like to comment on Paul’s negative remarks. Michael had his issues, but he was an artistic genius. The movies does not even come close to showing us that; and, also, I am not on welfare. I am a WHITE FEMALE who works as a legal assistant. Grow up, dude. Live one minute in MJ’s shoes, and you probably would have committed suicide years ago, just from the media frenzies wherever he went.
April 7th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Saturday night: Michael Jackson